Paper 2026/1974

Filtered Supersingular Isogeny Counts and Exact-Coset Response Existence

Abstract

We study the existence of bounded-degree supersingular isogenies under prescribed degree filters and exact torsion constraints. In characteristic $p$, a second-moment argument using the Brandt trace formula gives asymptotically positive coverage of independent uniform endpoints at $D=\lfloor c\sqrt{p}\rfloor$, for every fixed $c>0$ and every endpoint-independent binary filter retaining $\Omega(D^2)$ cyclic kernels. This avoids the logarithmic loss of a maximum-Petersson-norm estimate, but does not imply coverage tending to one. For curves equipped with a line in their $q$-torsion, where $q\neq p$ is prime, a cumulative Hecke estimate gives nonexistence $O\!\left(pq\ln^3(2pq)/D^2\right)$. Combined with a first-moment incidence bound, this separates two scalar-containing subgroups with the same upper-triangular span and additive Hom index $q$:their response-existence probabilities tend to one and zero when $q=p^{\beta+o(1)}$, $D=p^{1/2+\gamma+o(1)}$, and $0<\gamma<\beta<2\gamma<1$. The positive statement averages over a uniform source line and also yields an existential fixed-frame result; the exact challenge cardinalities differ. Determinant filters and finite odd-degree bounds at the SQIsign v3.0 parameters illustrate the results. All probabilities concern the stated arithmetic experiments, not the failure probability or security of a concrete signer.